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GOLD BREAK OUT ANALYSIS 12/11/2025

🟔 Overall Market Context

  • The chart shows an uptrend (series of higher highs and higher lows).
  • Recently, price has started consolidating, forming a descending triangle or channel pattern near the top.

šŸ”¹ Key Levels (Zones Highlighted in Purple)

  1. Upper Resistance Zone — around 4,145–4,156
    • This is where multiple wicks were rejected, showing strong selling pressure.
    • A break and retest above this zone could trigger bullish continuation.
  2. Middle Support Zone — around 4,114–4,118
    • This is a minor support area. If price finds support here, buyers may step in again.
    • If this zone breaks, price might drop further to the next major support.
  3. Lower Support Zone — around 4,070–4,082
    • This zone is the key demand area where previous strong bullish moves started.
    • A bullish bounce from here could signal continuation of the larger uptrend.
    • But if this area fails, we may see a deeper pullback.

šŸ“‰ Possible Scenarios

1ļøāƒ£ Bullish Scenario

  • Price holds above the middle or lower support zone,
  • Then breaks above the descending resistance line (top purple line).
  • Target: around 4,156–4,170+.
  • This would confirm a trend continuation after consolidation.

2ļøāƒ£ Bearish Scenario

  • Price breaks below 4,114,
  • Retests that zone as resistance,
  • Then drops toward 4,070–4,080.
  • A break below that could trigger further downside correction.

šŸ“Š Indicators

  • Moving Averages (MA lines):
    • The orange and blue MAs suggest short-term bearish pressure since price is slightly below them.
    • However, the longer-term structure remains bullish as long as major supports hold.

🧭 Trading Outlook

  • Buy Zone: Around 4,115–4,080, targeting 4,145–4,170 (if bullish confirmation).
  • Sell Zone: If breakdown occurs below 4,114, targeting 4,070 or lower.
  • Invalidation: A clear close below 4,070 would weaken the bullish outlook.
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